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Navigating the Unpredictable

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Bent Myllerup·Sep 1, 2026· 6 minutes

What happens in organisations is not as predictable as you might think. Why? Well, first of all, because psychodynamics are at play, but also because each human has an individual understanding of what is going on, and from that will do what makes sense to do – always! You may have strategies and plans prepared, but your employees will always act according to their own intentions.

Take the perspective of the natural phenomenon of murmurations, where a flock of starlings forms various patterns in the sky. When they do this, it is due to the presence of a predator and their desire for survival. When starlings are flocking, there is not a Chief Executive Bird orchestrating the event. No, each individual bird is deciding on its own how to fly. Most likely, three simple rules are at play: 1) Fly at a constant distance from the surrounding birds. 2) Fly at a constant pace relative to the surrounding birds. 3) Fly towards the centre of the flock, as this must be the safest place.

In the theory Complex Responsive Processes, murmurations are used as a metaphor for the social dynamics in an organisation. It tells us that we may have strategies and plans, but what is really going on in the company happens because the employees are doing what makes sense to them. They are acting according to their own individual intentions, so the social dynamics are the result of the interplay of intentions among the employees. That means you, as the leader, cannot control what is going on. Control is an illusion, and the sooner you accept this, the sooner you can start learning how to navigate the complexity of the dynamics in your company.

Leadership is about getting people to do what they would not have done on their own. But how can you lead if they are always acting according to their own intentions, doing what makes sense to them? Your best bet is to work actively with sensemaking.

Sensemaking is, in many ways, how our brain tries to connect the dots. When unexpected things happen, we try to make them fit into how we generally see the world. We look for patterns in our attempt to make things fall into their right place – even when things are not really fitting. As a leader, you are most likely using various models like DISC, The Five Dysfunctions of a Team, or the Tuckman model. These models are not 100% correct; they are simplifications of something more complex. Models are like maps: they do not have the same level of detail as the landscape itself; sometimes they are even wrong, but they help you navigate to your desired destination.

When leading through sensemaking, there are a number of aspects you need to address. Most importantly: direction, guard rails, and environment.

Direction – It is impossible to find your way if you do not know where you are going. All too often, employees have vague understandings of the purpose and goals of what they are doing. This makes them confused, sceptical, and hinders them from taking responsibility for achieving results. They might just blindly follow orders; they will constantly come back to you to verify their actions. If something goes wrong, they will use their energy to find excuses for why it went wrong rather than finding ways to make things go right. As their leader, you must clearly communicate the purpose and goals, and you must do it again and again so they can make sense of what they are doing.

Guard rails must also be clearly marked. For you as a leader, communicating the guard rails is usually more difficult than communicating the direction. For the employees, it is also usually more difficult to understand where the lines are. Depending on the psychodynamics in your organisation, they might understand them as tighter or wider than intended. Often, employees understand guard rails as more restrictive than intended. That will limit their room for manoeuvre and reduce their possibility for success. Sometimes, the employees simply make up their own rules that are more limiting than you intended. Truth is plural in human interaction, as we all see things differently and all have our own intentions. With guard rails, you often need to check in with the employees and clarify misunderstandings. In doing so, it is generally better to link this to what we intend to do rather than making a lot of rules about where the lines are. But metaphorically speaking, occasionally the guard rails need to be electric fences rather than lines painted on the lawn.

Environment – There needs to be a suitable context for employees to be motivated and succeed in what they are doing. Inside the guard rails, room for manoeuvre to achieve results and personal growth is a must for employees to feel motivated. Often, employees do not see the full potential of what they can and may do. Here, you help them by being their coach, helping them to see the big picture and unlock their potential to achieve the best possible outcome. The environment is heavily linked to the organisational culture and your ability to act as a role model – a quite difficult task to do.

Going back to the metaphor of murmurations, there is one more important lesson for you.

When watching starlings flocking, you can recognise the various patterns they form, but no matter how long you observe them, you will never be able to predict the next pattern. It is totally random and therefore unpredictable. The same unpredictability exists in your organisation. Running initiatives to shape the dynamics and culture in an organisation, you need to work with sensemaking while adopting an experimental approach. Build this on hypothesis testing and feedback loops. The metaphor tells us that a successful experiment only proves that, in this instance – with these people, in this context, at this particular time – it was like this. Repeating the experiment – even with the same people, in the same context, but at a different time – might yield another result. When you are leading people, do not take things for granted, and do not be unpleasantly surprised when something different from what you expected happens. Leading people is about navigating the complexity of organisational dynamics and human interactions.

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Next Your Future Challenge: Lack of Experienced Employees

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